Put options stock market crash
5 Investing Strategies if the Market Crashes (HDGE, BIS)
Equities in the United States have been in a bull market since 2009, with stocks reaching new peaks following the 2008 financial crisis. As of the end of May 2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had a seven-year return of 109.19%, and the S&P 500 Index had a seven-year return of 136.40%. With valuations inflating, many investors are concerned about the potential risks of a market crash, which is typically characterized by losses of over 20% over a prolonged 12-month period. While these crashes are often few and far between, wise investors are prepared with strategies to mitigate potential losses. In the case of a market downturn, the following five investing strategies can help you to protect your investments.
Fixed Income and Treasurys.
Seeking fixed-income safe havens, such as Treasurys specifically, is the most basic way to protect your investments from market downturns. If valuations are rising and economic indicators are lagging, then the market is reporting a disconnect and valuations will surely fall as they are efficiently priced over time. For investors, raising cash from mutual funds and other liquid investments and transferring them to Treasurys when anticipating or experiencing the effects of a market downturn can greatly protect against losses. Treasurys can always be relied upon for investors as a safe haven, since Treasurys essentially have no risk. More specifically, investing your cash in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) ensures a rate of return while still beating inflation.
Hard Assets.
Another safe haven for investors is hard assets such as real estate. Securing and investing in real estate property at a stable value can give you peace of mind in the case of a market downturn. With real estate, your investment is backed by a hard asset with tangible value. At the same time, homeowners should also be cautious of added financial burdens related to real estate. Added burdens such as additional home equity lines of credit can harm a homeowner’s credit profile and increase interest payments, adding risk during a potential market downturn.
Hedging With Put Options.
If you are tied to some of your higher-risk investments, the best way to hedge against potential market losses is to buy put options. Put options provide you with an option to sell when security levels reach a specified low point. The available range of offerings for put options is wide, providing a number of investments for hedging. If covering direct stock investments, investors can buy corresponding put options. If identical options are not available, then investors can turn to more sophisticated synthetic put option strategies that replicate a portfolio through put options providing for comprehensive selling in a market downturn. For more general protection, investors can also utilize index put options that can be exercised when a market index reaches a specified low. Put options come with a cost, like all types of insurance, and the risk of entering into a put option that expires unexercised is the loss you incur from the put option's cost with no exercised benefit.
Selling Calls.
A reverse strategy for buying put options to protect against a market crash includes selling call options. When selling call options, a seller expects the price of a security to fall and seeks to identify a buyer who is willing to buy the call option for the right to buy the security at a specified price. The seller of the call option benefits from the buyer’s purchase of the security at a higher price than the seller anticipates it to be valued in the trading market. Similar to put options, call options are traded for specified securities and indexes. More complex call option selling strategies can also be developed to synthetically replicate and protect specified investment positions.
Inverse Strategies.
A final option for investors who foresee a market crash on the horizon is to invest in market-hedged products providing for protection from specific downside risks. A number of these investments exist, with some of the most well-known of these investments being inverse exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and leveraged inverse ETFs. Examples include the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF (NYSEARCA: HDGE) and the ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ: BIS). These funds take an active inverse market position that seeks to benefit from a market downturn or crash. Leveraged inverse ETFs take the short-side protection one step further by employing leverage to enhance the gains from short-selling positions. These inverse funds are designed specifically for situations where severe losses can be incurred from a market downturn.
Key Takeaways.
Overall, these five options provide investors with varying levels of liquidity for managing a potential market crash. Hard assets can provide security through tangible value. Shifting assets to safe havens, such as Treasurys, provides a liquid and simplistic approach that can be enacted relatively quickly if investors foresee signs of a market downturn or crash. Put options, call options and inverse strategies are slightly more sophisticated to employ. Put and call options can primarily be traded actively, allowing for investment coverage relatively quickly. Similarly, inverse strategies are typically traded daily with high levels of liquidity, allowing for comprehensive coverage through block investment trades. Both indexed options and inverse strategy funds are good to include as an added layer of risk protection through all market cycles in any portfolio; however, they can be even more optimally utilized in the case of a market crash. With options requiring synthetic strategies to cover portfolio risks, trading can be more complicated with less-allowable liquidity for immediate market downturns.
My Secret To Profiting From The Next Market Crash.
I was fortunate to have begun my career during the dot-com boom. It taught me how to successfully navigate a market during a forming bubble. and its eventual bust.
The most important lessons I learned on the floor during those years were to watch closely for bubbles, be careful of crowded trades and always anticipate the crowd's future movements.
While they may seem obvious, all three can be extremely difficult to accomplish when you're in the heat of the moment; especially if you tend to be an emotional trader.
Following these tactics allowed me to make money during the late 1990s and 2000s, a historically turbulent time.
I'm not bringing this up to pat myself in the back. It's because what I'm seeing in the market today is eerily familiar. Specifically, one of my favorite indicators is pointing to a bubble in U. S. equities.
As I mentioned previously, the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is at extreme levels.
The last time it flashed its current reading was at the end of 2009, and within six months, the market had undergone a correction. The previous time it was even close to this high was in October 2007, when stocks began a 17-month, 57% decline. See for yourself:
At 17.62 based on 2015 estimated earnings, the P/E multiple for the S&P 500 is at its highest level in almost 10 years. The current forward P/E multiple might be more acceptable if we weren't nearly 70 months into a recovery, well beyond the average economic expansion time of 58.4 months.
Making matters worse, most of the near-term catalysts seem bearish. The market is bracing for an interest rate hike and the effects of a stronger U. S. dollar, both of which will hurt S&P 500 earnings.
Internationally, China's growth is slowing to a 24-year low, Brazil is on the brink of recession and the European Union expects to grow a meager 1.3% as a whole in 2015. Weakening global consumers will reduce revenues for U. S. companies. Now is not an appropriate time to justify premium pricing.
Now, I'm not forecasting the next recession, but rather a reset (correction) of more than 10% over the course of a few weeks, which we haven't had since late 2011. That might not sound like much of a profit opportunity, but by using one of my favorite strategies we could easily turn that move into a 60%. 70%. or even 80% gain.
The secret to amplifying your gains from a downside move is buying puts. If you're not familiar with puts, don't worry, they're easy to understand. Put options go up in value when the underlying security drops.
Let me show you exactly how they work. And why we don't need a crisis in the United States to successfully use puts.
You may have heard the phrase "there's always a bull market somewhere." I've found the opposite is also true. There's always a market crisis somewhere. So while the S&P 500 marched 11.4% higher in 2014, several foreign markets struggled. Then there was Russia.
Back in July, when I recommended readers buy puts on Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: RSX ) , a U. S. fund that tracks the Russian market, the country was in trouble.
The Russia/Ukraine conflict dominated headlines. Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 had just been shot down over a pro-Russian area of Ukraine. And countries around the world were imposing sanctions on Russia.
On top of that, the Russian economy was growing at a snail's pace, even though it was at full capacity -- i. e., the unemployment rate was just 4.9%. In other words, you basically had an economy operating as efficiently as it could with peak employment and little to no growth.
I expected the negative headlines, economic sanctions and slow growth to push shares down in the coming weeks. And that's exactly what happened.
Over the course of 20 days, shares fell 8.9%. That's not a bad return for investors who shorted the stock. But readers who followed my profit amplifying strategy made 6.5 times as much. 58%.
You see, I recommended readers buy put options instead of shorting shares. Specifically, I recommended selling the RSX Nov 28 Puts at $3.30 . That's a put option on RSX that expired in November with a cost of $3.30 per share, or $330 per contract since every options contract controls 100 shares.
Since shares traded at $25.30 at the time, we needed them to fall at least 2.4% for the trade to hit my breakeven point at $24.70 ($28 strike price minus $3.30 options premium). RSX was below that price within a week. That's not surprising since stocks tend to fall faster than they rise.
By the time I closed the trade, shares traded for $23.05, and the $3.30 puts we purchased were worth $5.20 -- a 58% gain. If you had bought 10 contracts for $3,300, you would have walked away with a $1,900 profit. You would have needed to short $21,365 worth of RSX shares to make the same $1,900 gain!
Like I said, I think the U. S. market could be within weeks of a correction in U. S. stocks. So I think right now is a critical time to learn everything you can about options, specifically buying puts. That's why I agreed to an on-camera interview with Frank Bermea, Profitable Trading's publisher. In the interview, I reveal exactly how to find the types of trades that can help you profit from the next market crisis. I urge you to watch the interview now.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of NASDAQ, Inc.
Put Options: Protection From the Next Stock Market Crash?
With the market teetering, many investors are looking to protect themselves. Can put options get the job done? Find out here.
Stocks soared in 2013, but that has many investors on edge about the prospects for a big correction or even a bear market in 2014. If you want to protect against a big stock market crash, put options can give you the protection you want -- but is it worth the price you'll pay?
In the following video, Dan Caplinger, The Motley Fool's director of investment planning, looks at put options and how they work. Dan notes that put options are basically similar to insurance policies, in that you pay an upfront premium for protection from falling markets. If the market does drop, then you can exercise the option and reap benefits. If the market doesn't drop, then you'll often lose your entire premium. Dan points to options available on indexes like the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) , ETFs like the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEMKT:SPY) or the SPDR Select Financials (NYSEMKT:XLF) , as well as individual-stock put options. Dan concludes that options can be pricey and aren't worth having at all times, but they can provide short-term protection when you think you need it most.
Fool contributor Dan Caplinger and The Motley Fool have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Put options market crash.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. I just recorded my live trading platform and real money account as I walked through the process of entering a new iron condor trade in CMG stock. They do matter in the rankings of the show, and I read each and every one of them! Finding profitable trading strategies during a bear market is often challenging. Additionally, the SEC can take an emergency action to prevent investors from shorting certain companies, like it did last year with financial stocks such as Goldman Sachs NYSE:
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Smart Money Buying Huge Put Options for Another Stock Market Crash 2010?
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